Why You Should be Thanking Jacoby Ellsbury

I'm grateful to Jacoby Ellsbury. I remember going to a Portland Sea Dogs game with my Grampy when Ellsbury was still in the minors. My Grampy looked at me and said, "Jordan watch him play, because trust me, he won't be here for long."

To say my Grampy was right would be an understatement and Ellsbury's career is a testament to that fact. He was a crucial part of two World Series runs. Defensively, he's played with reckless abandon, throwing his body around Fenway Park's outfield to make fantastic catches. He's been a terror on the base paths stealing 70 bases in 2009 and 241 over the course of his career. Finally, Ellsbury is one of only 34 players in MLB history to make it into the 30/30 (30 steals and 30 home runs in a season) club.

Yesterday, Ellsbury once again came through for me by deciding to leave the Sox. Yes, he went to the Yankees and people feel betrayed, but for Ellsbury, it makes sense. Yankee Stadium has a small outfield, meaning Ellsbury has less ground to cover defensively. The short porch in right could help boost his power numbers allowing him to remain and elite player as his speed dwindles. At 29, he becomes the youngest projected Yankee starter...

Let's take a second for that one to sink in.

And finally I'm sure it's hard to walk away from $153 million especially when Scott Boras is your agent.

That being said, Ellsbury is one of the most overvalued players in the league. He's a tremendous player, to be sure, but statistically with the exception of his speed, there is little to command the contract he got. To prove this point lets look at how Ellsbury compares to other free agent outfielders.

Ellsbury lacks power. His one 30 home run season must be considered an apparition at this point as he's never hit more than 10 dingers in any of his other six major league seasons. Over the past two seasons Ellsbury hit a total of 13 home runs. Shin-Soo Choo (37), Curtis Granderson (50), Carlon Beltran (56), Nelson Cruz (51), Raul Ibanez (48), Nate McLouth (19) AND EVEN RAJAI DAVIS (14) have all shown more power than Ellsbury during that span.

Yes this Rajai Davis. That's the smile of a man who has more homers than Ellsbury.

That being said, as a lead-off man, Ellbury's job is to get on base. His career .297 batting average (BA) and .350 on-base percentage (OBP) are nothing to scoff at, but are also quite unremarkable. Granderson's batting average is only .261 but his OBP of .340 is comparable. Choo's career .289 average is impressive and his .389 OBP far surpasses Ellsbury's mark.

Beltran has a career .283 average and .359 OBP. McClouth is only a .250 hitter but has a career OBP of .334. Even Chris Coghlan (.337) and Juan Pierre (.343) have comparable career OBPs. Once again, Ellsbury's ability to get on base, while impressive, is by no means exceptional.

Defensively, Ellsbury deserves some credit. He's won the Gold Glove award and boasts a career .995 fielding percentage. But once again, this really doesn't make him special. McLouth also owns a Gold Glove and a career .991 fielding percentage. Beltran, although his centerfielding days are behind him, won three Gold Gloves at the position and has a career .986 fielding percentage. Even Granderson, who has never won a Gold Glove is a career .994 fielder.

Ellsbury is a solid centerfielder, but utilizes his speed to make up for average reads to track down balls that would otherwise fall. As he gets older and his speed declines, more of these balls will fall and its likely Ellsbury will need to move to right or left - as most centerfielders eventually do

The injuries speak for themselves. Jacoby has only played over 150 games twice in his full six years in the league. People have made the case that he played through injuries this past year, however he still missed 30 games and I don't buy it. It was a contract year, I don't know if this type of grit and determination will be there going forward. Ellsbury is also 29 years old and stands to lose his durability over time. It's sad for a player of such potential to have his production hindered by injury, but the fact is that there are some players who play 150+ games a season and those who don't, and Ellsbury doesn't look to be dethroning Cal Ripken Jr. anytime soon.

The one thing you can't take away from the man is speed. His 52 stolen bases topped the majors this year and every season he's been healthy Ellsbury has swiped at least 39 bases. But is speed worth $153 million? Davis has stole at least 29 bases for each of the last six seasons. In fact, during four of the last five seasons Davis has swiped at least 40 bags.

The other issue is that Ellsbury's speed is going to decline with age. Lets look at the all-time leader in stolen bases, Rickey Henderson. Between the ages of 20 and 30 Henderson stole at least 60 bases in each of eight full seasons he played. From the ages of 31 to 44 Henderson stole at least 60 bases only twice! If the greatest of all-time couldn't keep up his production, I'm sorry to say Ellsbury can't either.

I'm sad to see Ellsbury go, but the fact of the matter is that general manager Ben Cherington was right to let him walk (which ironically he didn't do enough of in Boston). You can't spend $153 million nor invest seven years in stolen bases alone. With this type of money it's conceivable that the Sox could go after another another outfielder. There is talk of the Sox pursuing a trade with the Dodgers for either Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier. More interestingly Choo's name has also come up over the past twenty hours. I'm hopping on the Choo-Choo train here. If the Sox sign Choo I will be the first one in line to purchase his jersey.

If this happens I will be the happiest Sox fan ever.

All I can say is thank you, Jacoby. It's been a great six years, you've given us the prime of your career and done so much for the organization and I wish you all the best with the Yankees. But now it's time for us to part ways and I think that it's for the best.

2014 MLB Season Starting to Take Shape with Flurry of Early December Moves

Major League Baseball has been an absolute merry-go-round the past 72 hours.  Every team with the exception of the Milwaukee Brewers has made some sort of move since December 1.

The biggest news of December so far has been the Jacoby Ellsbury signing by the New York Yankees, a deal worth seven years and $153 million.  Unbeknownst to Red Sox Nation, an understudy of Johnny Damon for years, Ellsbury will now be playing the lead role of Judas in 2014.

But this offseason hasn't been all bad news! When I look at the list of transactions, what's move stands out to me as one of the best?  The Chicago Cubs signing former Red Sox and Blue Jays great Eric Hinske as their first base coach.  Great clubhouse guy, and if this isn't one of the best catches you've ever seen, I'll eat my hat.

Reigning World Champion catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia has signed a three-year, $21 million deal with the Miami Marlins, barely after the sun sank on the day the Boston Red Sox secured A.J. Pierzynski for next season.  The Houston Astros inked Dexter Fowler in a deal with the Colorado Rockies as they begin their quest out of the basement and into mediocrity.  The Oakland A's have shipped my boy Jemile Weeks over to the Baltimore Orioles for closer Jim Johnson, leaving Grant Balfour to sit in his house circling 'wanted' ads in the paper.

Balfour, along with Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano remain some of the biggest free agent names left.  But players such as John Axford, J.P. Arencibia, Sam Fuld, Ronald Belisario and Garrett Jones find themselves unemployed at the moment as their respective teams have declined to offer them new deals for the upcoming year.

And the ol' rumor mill is still churning up stories faster than you can say "expanded instant replay."  Boston has been pursuing Matt Kemp, the Detroit Tigers are looking to lock up Joe Nathan as their new, sane closer. The Seattle Mariners are now the frontrunners in the pathetic bidding war for Cano/Jay-Z's desired 10-year, $300 million contract, tipping their hand that they are willing to exceed $200 million.

As they say, when the weather cools down, things start heating up.  I don't know who says that, but I've definitely heard it before.  Though there have been some significant signings already, the 2013-14 offseason is just kicking into gear.

Big Egos Require Big Contracts

To me, the most disturbing thing about the Jacoby Ellsbury trade is not the fact that he’s leaving the Red Sox after their textbook Cinderella World Series run, nor is it that he went to the New York Yankees, of all teams.  The most disturbing thing is the sheer size of his new contract and a trend that is starting to spiral completely out of control in professional sports.

Star athletes need to be validated by their contracts.  Athletes have come to view their contract size as the ultimate mark of success in their sport.  It’s not the number of championships they win or awards they receive.  It’s not even their individual statistics or records.  In the end, all they really care about is how much they get paid doing it.

I lose a lot of respect for an athlete who holds out for a bigger contract.  When an athlete holds out, he shows both his teammates and the fans that money trumps all.  It is made quite clear that money is more important than the success of his team and the support of his fans.

What’s worse than holding out on your team for more money, is abandoning them for more money; and worse than that is heading over to a rival team in pursuit of your big pay day.

The issue is that these athletes aren’t looking for these bigger contracts to help them feed their kids or to help them pay their bills.  They don’t need that extra $10 million, on top of what’s already a multi-million dollar deal, to provide for their families.  These bigger contracts are all about their ego.

When one of these superstar athletes retires, nobody remembers the size of their contracts. No fan ever looks back on a player’s record-breaking career and recites their pay rate.  When being considered for the Hall of Fame, the amount of money made during their time in the league holds no weight.

Therefore, when star athletes are getting seven-year contracts worth $153 million (like Ellsbury's), I guess the real purpose of such exorbitance is just to make them feel better about themselves.